the Grizzlies and Timberwolves face off for the second time this season Wednesday night in Minneapolis.
The first meeting since Memphis and Minnesota’s heated first-round playoff series went to the Grizzlies a few weeks back. Memphis won, 114-103, at FedEx Forum and so far has been able to repeat its 2021 success to a greater degree than the T-Wolves, who have struggled since the Rudy Gobert trade.
Injuries to both teams will affect this matchup. Karl-Anthony Towns is out four to six weeks with a calf injury and this will be the first game he misses. Desmond Bane (toe) has also been ruled out and Dillon Brooks (thigh) is questionable. Jaren Jackson Jr. missed the first of four meetings this year between these teams but is back for Memphis, which poses a big advantage with Towns out.
The Grizzlies are a road favourite, a position that hasn’t been profitable so far this season as they are 2-4-1 when giving points on the road. They did cover the four-point spread last time they played the Timberwolves, though.
Memphis Grizzlies vs. Minnesota Timberwolves Odds
Times: 8 pm ET
Spreads: Grizzlies -2.5 (-110) | Timberwolves +2.5 (-110)
Moneylines: Grizzlies (-143) | Timberwolves (+120)
Total: 231.5 — Over (-110) | Under (-110)
Grizzlies Betting Profile
Straight Up Records: 12-8
Against The Spread Record: 8-11-1
Over/Under Records: 10-9-1
Points Per Game (Rank): 115.7 (9)
Points Allowed Per Game (Rank): 114.3 (18)
Timberwolves Betting Profile
Straight Up Records: 10-11
Against The Spread Record: 7-14
Over/Under Records: 9-12
Points Per Game (Rank): 114.6 (12)
Points Allowed Per Game (Rank): 116 (23)
Spread Bets: Grizzlies -2.5 (-110)
Memphis heads to Minnesota on a two-game winning streak, having downed the pelicans at home, 132-111, and most recently the Knicks on the road, 127-123. The Timberwolves have lost three in a row and their last two were blowouts: 142-127 against the Wizards and 137-114 versus the Warriors. And now they’ll be without Towns, their second-leading scorer and rebounder.
Anthony Edwards has led Minnesota in scoring lately and he could be in line for more work against Memphis after he thrived in this matchup in the postseason. With a higher-scoring offense and stouter defense, the Grizzlies have the clear edge in this matchup and the spread reflects as much.
Even though Gobert is the second-best rebounder in the league, Memphis has the edge on the boards as the second-highest rebounding team overall. The three-point edge certainly goes to the Grizzlies as well, as they make about 1.5 more threes per game than the T-Wolves. Minnesota has given up some big spots to opponents lately, and Memphis can continue that trend on the road against the team with the second-worst record against the spread in the NBA.
Over/Under Bets: Under 231.5 (-110)
Both teams’ last two games have gone over 240 total points, though only 217 points were scored in the first matchup. And now Towns, which averages better than 20 ppg, is out of the equation. So far, neither offense has lived up to what it did the previous year when they ranked first and second in the league in scoring.
With two top scorers out in Towns and Bane, it’s difficult to see this game going over this total. Memphis’s games hit the over a bit more than half the time, while Minnesota’s games do so in about 42% of games. This one is staying under.
Prop Bet: Anthony Edwards Over 25.5 Points (-118)
Edwards hit this total in his last two games and he averages 22.6 ppg on the season. In those last two games, he’s taken 10 or more free throws, an added boost for a talented scorer. If he can get to the line like that against Memphis, which he fouls at about a league average rate, he can easily hit this prop.
Last time out against the Grizzlies, he scored 28 points on 16 shots, including seven free-throw attempts. With Towns out, his 14.4 shots per game (second on the team to Edwards) are free for the taking. At least a few of those are bound to go to Edwards, who had two 30-plus-point games against Memphis in the postseason.
Get fantasy and betting analysis in your inbox by signing up for the Winners Club newsletter
More Betting, Fantasy and NBA:
• NFL Week 13 Odds, Matchups
• US-Netherlands Odds
• Chiefs Pass Bills as Super Bowl Favorites
• Week 13 Start ‘Em, Sit ‘Em: RB
• How the US Advanced