the Heat and Celtics begin a two-game set Wednesday night at TD Garden and they will play each other again two nights later at the same venue.
Boston took the first meeting of the season in Miami in October, 111-104. There’s plenty of playoff history between these franchises, with the most recent meeting coming in the 2022 Eastern Conference Finals that the C’s won in seven games.
The Heat were the 1-seed in that playoff matchup, but now it’s the Celtics who are in first place in the East and also own the NBA’s best record. Boston is a sizable favorite on its home floor, where it is 10-1. Meanwhile, Miami is 2-7 on the road and failed to cover as a two-point underdog on its home court in the first meeting.
Miami Heat vs. Boston Celtics Odds
Times: 7:30 pm ET (NBA TV)
Spreads: Heat +8.5 (+100) | Celtics -8.5 (-118)
Moneylines: Heat (+310) | Celtics (-400)
Total: 222.5 — Over (-110) | Under (-110)
Heat Betting Profile
Straight Up Records: 10–11
Against The Spread Record: 7–13–1
Over/Under Records: 11–10
Points Per Game (Rank): 108.4 (28)
Points Allowed Per Game (Rank): 108.9 (8)
Celtics Betting Profile
Straight Up Records: 17–4
Against The Spread Record: 13–8
Over/Under Records: 12–8–1
Points Per Game (Rank): 121.3 (1)
Points Allowed Per Game (Rank): 112.9 (14)
Spread Bets: Celtics -8.5 (-118)
The Heat have played solid basketball of late, though not against any opponents as good as the Celtics. They enter the contest on a three-game winning streak, which includes a pair of wins against the Wizards and one over the Hawks.
This spread is so wide because most of Miami’s roster is on the injury report. Jimmy Butler, Duncan Robinson and Victor Oladipo are out and—hold your breath—Tyler Herro, Max Strus, GabeVincent, Caleb Martin, Nikola Jovic and Dewayne Dedmond are all questionable. More of the Heat’s roster is injured than healthy. Although it’s highly unlikely everyone on the injury report sits, Kyle Lowry and Bam Adebyao are the only rotation players without injury designations.
As for Boston, Jaylen Brown is the lone player on his injury report and he’s day-to-day—though missed the last game against the Hornets. Boston is far and away the best offense in the league and though its defense isn’t on par with where it was last season, it’s made up for that with its scoring leap. Jayson Tatum is at the heart of that improvement and he led the way with 29 points in the first matchup.
Between the Heat’s struggles outside of Miami, the Celtics’ proficiency in Boston and the injury report, this one should go to the C’s. Boston is 3-1 against the spread as a favorite of nine or more points this year.
Over/Under Bets: Over 222.5 (-110)
The Celtics’ league-high scoring average accounts for more than half of this total—essentially all the Heat would have to do to send this game over is break 100 points. And on Boston’s four-game road trip, its average is up to 129.2 ppg. And remember, this C’s defense is not what it was last season. Even a short-handed Heat team should be able to score the requisite points to see that the over hits.
Both teams’ games hit the over more often than not and Celtics games do so at one of the highest rates in the league. For how they’ve played lately, this is a relatively modest figure.
Prop Bet: Bam Adebayo Over 20.5 Points (-125)
Adebayo is in the midst of his best scoring stretch of the season with 70 points over the last two games. He averages exactly 20.5 ppg this season and Miami will need to rely on him with so few of its healthy scoring threats. He’s taken 20 or more shots over the last two games and that should continue the way he’s been putting the ball in the basket. Adebayo finished with 19 in the first meeting with the Heat; as the top option, he can build on that outing.
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