Odds, Spreads, DFS Picks, and More

Two perennial powers in the Mountain West do battle on Black Friday as our Utah State vs. Boise State college football betting prediction indicates just how close this game could be. The Broncos are playing in the conference title game just a week from now, but they must avoid looking over last year’s Mountain West champion Aggies before meeting Fresno State next week.

Utah State vs. Boise State Betting Preview

  • Spreads
    Boise State (-16.5)
  • Moneyline
    Boise State (-800); Utah State (+575)
  • Over/Under
  • Game time
    12pm ET
  • Location
    Albertsons Stadium, Boise, ID
  • Predicted weather at kickoff
    38 degrees, partly cloudy, 5-6 mph winds
  • How to watch

Top DFS Picks and Fantasy Plays

  • QB Taylen Green, Boise State ($9,900)
  • QB Cooper Legas, Utah State ($7,800)
  • RB George Holani, Boise State ($9,100)
  • RB Calvin Tyler Jr., Utah State ($7,800)
  • RB Ashton Jeanty, Boise State ($6,300)
  • RB Robert Briggs, Utah State ($4,900)
  • WR Brian Cobbs, Utah State ($7,500)
  • WR Billy Bowens, Boise State ($7,300)
  • WR Latrell Capes, Boise State ($6,200)
  • WR Justin McGriff, Utah State ($6,200)
  • WR Terrell Vaughn, Utah State ($6,100)
  • WR Stefan Cobbs, Boise State ($6,000)
  • WR Eric McAlister, Boise State ($5,000)
  • TE Riley Smith, Boise State ($5,100)
  • TE Josh Sterzer, Utah State ($5,000)

With a full-game slate of action to choose from, there are a variety of options in this game to use in your DFS lineups. Choosing a full-day slate is an option — there will be a concoction of sure things and value picks. Grabbing an entry into an early-slate contest gives you better options here, however.

Taylen Green has been consistent over his past four starts, throwing six touchdowns and rushing for another three scores. He’s always a good option to ponder in an early-slate contest because of that dual-threat ability.

Elsewhere on Boise State’s roster, Green’s impact on the ground has been recently mitigated by a fully healthy George Holani. The breakout freshman from 2019 is just 24 yards away from breaking the 1,000-yard mark and has scored seven touchdowns in his past four games.

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The offense has started to run through Holani (not counting the fumble against Wyoming). He’s a great addition in both full-day and early-slate contests.

On Utah State’s side, the aerial assault should be mitigated by Boise State’s strong coverage unit that ranks first in the Mountain West in a bevy of pass-defense categories.

RB Calvin Tyler Jr. has returned to form to close out the season and is a slippery player to tackle in the open field. Boise will attempt to stack the box but can’t get too complacent with the Air Raid principles from head coach Blake Anderson. This will allow Tyler to have some open space on the outside and use his speed (and likely eclipse 100 yards on the ground).

Prediction for Utah State vs. Boise State

What a wild season it has been for the defending Mountain West champion Utah State Aggies. Though they won’t be playing to defend their crown next week against Fresno State, this Boise State team will be fighting for a Mountain West title against the Bulldogs themselves.

So, what does Utah State have to play for in this one? The right to potentially say they were the only team to beat Boise State from the Mountain West this season and their fourth consecutive win.

In fact, a win against Boise State would be the Aggies’ sixth in seven games. This game pits a red-hot Utah State team with their aerial assault against one of the nation’s top pass defenses on the blue turf at Albertsons Stadium.

Boise State has allowed teams to score more than 20 points just three times this season, and two of those contests were to Power Five opponents (yes, it’s that time when we can almost officially label BYU as a Power Five team). The Broncos have one of the nation’s top defenses in terms of stopping the pass, and they’ll certainly be tested against Utah State.

Looking at the season numbers is not a great way of looking at Utah State since they’ve been a tale of two halves this year. Instead, looking at how they’ve won their last three games is much more indicative of how they can give Boise State a run for their money.

By averaging 34.3 points per game over their last three, it’s clear that their offense is winning them games. QB Cooper Legas has thrown five touchdowns and limited his interceptions to just two over the last three outings.

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Legas has seen the field well and is dishing accurate passes to each level. However, it’s been the recent resurgence of Calvin Tyler Jr. as the biggest catalyst. Tyler has rushed for over 100 yards in each of the past two games and scored four touchdowns.

The shifty former Oregon State running back and kickoff return specialist has started to look more and more like his 2021 form (where he nearly eclipsed 1,000 rushing yards). He’s reached the 1,000-yard mark of total offense and will be pivotal for Boise State to stop.

On defense, Boise State does have one of the nation’s top point guards in JL Skinner. Fresh off a two-interception performance, Skinner gives Boise the ability to stack the box against Tyler while presenting a safety net over the top against deep passes and any runs that break contain.

Still, Boise State is relatively banged up and hasn’t shown the offensive prowess they’ve recently been known for down the stretch. They gave the ball away carelessly on offense last week, attempting to close out a victory against Wyoming, having to be bailed out by Skinner himself.

They’ve seemingly set the speed to coast and are riding into the Mountain West Championship Game regardless of the outcome here. There’s a lot to play for on Utah State’s side and little else to do but prepare for the MWC Championship for Boise.

That’s a recipe for an upset. Almost.

prediction: Boise State 31, Utah State 25

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